North American auto commerce will change the vibration pattern of the international automotive
5 months before, when GM Chief Operating Officer (COO) Henderson forecast that the genuine urgent position in the United States automobile market will emerge in the first half of 2009. 5 months subsequent, the American automobile market turbulence verified him prophetic, even Henderson himself has been shoved to the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) on the chair, prepared for GM to bypass the last disintegrate of one stroke.
March 29, General Motors CEO Wagoner submitted his resignation. The next day, Obama turned down the President of the United States GM and Chrysler's restructuring design, GM furthermore inquired the next 60 days, larger efforts should arrive up with the restructuring design, or only search bankruptcy protection. At the identical time, the United States, "three" in another Chrysler, and Fiat have furthermore went into into a international coalition structure agreement.
Now, it can be said that the U.S. auto oversized to the terminal line of life and death, maybe in two months afterwards, the American motor vehicle development will have a noteworthy change. Since distribute to the worldwide fiscal squall at the time, the world depiction of drive vehicles has now commenced on the loose; With advancing extent down of the critical purpose, the North American market modifications subversive clear advancing movement, which will be the pattern of the worldwide auto development and what the pattern of Products affected? For the development of Chinese automobile development which Enlightenment? In this interview with the National Information Center for knowledge supply development, Xu Changming, chief director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute and a examiner Zhang Xin.
There is still hope that the United States Automobile
Some commentators trust that the Government of the United States intervention in general so serious, or will fully completed descend GM. In this view, Zhang Xin consider, if GM bankruptcy, in item is not basically due to incapacity to carry on to run while the bankruptcy, but the Government, trade unions, organisation, staff between the effects of a succession of games. But practically, a primary general-purpose or, in actual in the new vitality and hydrogen fuel technical knowledge has superiority, the prevailing need to start a new vitality, electrical motor vehicles in transition.
Even though the area of electric driven vehicles at GM to start previous, and the formation of a more complicated mechanical scheme, but because before the financial urgent position of the customary American vehicle sales have been steady, there will be no hurry to the advancement of universal electric driven vehicles. Zhang Xin believe should grab this opening now.
Development through common experiences, Xu Chang-ming also believes that the United States should step up for energy prices, economic models of development, the future oil prices will continue to improve, the United States "tall wide" dead end mode of development of the models.
The worldwide automobile development or change the pattern of
Xu Changming consider, in spite of of if or not GM will change, the pattern of the worldwide automotive development, many modifications will surely have to happen. Since any greatest monetary critical purpose will have noteworthy ramifications, and the United States and Japan will break through down on large enterprises.
The North American market has shrunk considerably, the large-scale accept the brunt of the battle against the United States are localized vehicle prices. At the identical time, because North America is Japan's most significant aim the globalization market, Japanese vehicle charges are furthermore hard hit.
Prior to this, to Honda, Toyota for the day on behalf of the Department of models are considered in the economic crisis in a relatively advantageous position, but the present situation, because the total North American market drop too much, resulting in the overall impact can not own a business . Statistics show that sales have been from the United States market in 2007 fell to 17 million of the 13 million last year, probably only this year reached 9,000,000.
In compare, Xu Changming believe vehicle businesses in Europe influenced by the somewhat little mass of globalization for example goal markets, mainly in the development of appearing markets, appearing markets, the lesser the influence of economic crisis; and Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other high-end emblem in the international somewhat balanced distribution.
Zhang accepts as factual that the development of the automotive commerce from the international position, Sino-Japanese financial urgent position at the Department of the development promise of vehicles are still the strongest. Since, as comprised by Toyota, Japanese vehicle charges in the enterprise beliefs, administration, merchandise minutia on the deal to be better than the U.S. and European companies. If the U.S. finances out of the base of this year, it will be likely Japanese vehicles are the large-scale victors, but there is no earnings if the last "who furthermore can not carry."
Zhang believes that the economic crisis, only to maintain the survival of the funds. If sales in emerging markets but it does not bring good returns, or no meaning. For instance, Toyota, Honda and other Japanese car prices in emerging markets also have very good sales, but its profitability and strong high-end products, mainly in the North American market. When the 31 percent decline in the U.S. market, Toyota on the loss of that in emerging markets only, "go traffic" and not effective, the same will not work.
Behind the prosperity of the Chinese automobile market is concerned
Same even though the financial crisis affected the Chinese automobile market, but because of policy changes adjusted to have a great opportunity for the domestic market. Maintenance fee abolition of falling oil prices, car purchase tax by half, "car to the countryside policies" have contributed greatly to the small displacement and low-cost model development.
According to Xu Changming analysis, 80 percent belong to their own brand of such models, it changes from a policy perspective, the own brand is beneficial. Xu Chang-ming judge, the next two years are the development of own brands the historical opportunity of the second period. The first opportunity in history are from 2002 to 2007, the total automobile market at an average annual rate of more than 35% growth in own brands to exciting opportunities; this policy are the opportunities at the market as a whole the situation is not good Next, there is obviously conducive to the development of independent brands.
XU Chang said, from the first half of this year, contrasted the position gaze better, because this around of market recovery, do not depend on one well-developed, second-class localities, but mostly by the somewhat in turn around localities are market driven. Start-up of these markets, somewhat longer time span of time will extend, because these finances less influenced and is in a time span of fast development, this market will in the beside future to sustain good grade of development.
However, Xu Chang-ming incisive out that the guideline in addition commanded to chances for our nation vehicle will lessen the effectiveness of enterprises, tiny displacement the quick expansion of low-priced types, but the complete heading down movement in profits.
Zhang trusts that the prevailing so-called "good", only the "quantity" a manifestation of, but if yield descent, and there is no large allotment of farther significance. Such an result is in all likelihood to source the Government to stimulate the overdraft, the future of sustainable development is a horrid solution.
Zhang said that China's auto market is historical opportunity for the survival of the fittest, if missed, then the Chinese will forever be with the car standing in the world behind the giants. 2008, China's largest enterprises, Shanghai Automotive car (the production of 1.75 million last year) vehicles can not enter the world top ten enterprises, tenth 1,880,000 are production, have tens of thousands of units of the gap 10.
Zhang trusts that China's auto market is still in the "Government of the warlords under the security of scrimmage." Only by letting enterprises to optimize the superiority, faults enterprises be abolished fully completed, the Chinese can become a truly tough car. - 18418
March 29, General Motors CEO Wagoner submitted his resignation. The next day, Obama turned down the President of the United States GM and Chrysler's restructuring design, GM furthermore inquired the next 60 days, larger efforts should arrive up with the restructuring design, or only search bankruptcy protection. At the identical time, the United States, "three" in another Chrysler, and Fiat have furthermore went into into a international coalition structure agreement.
Now, it can be said that the U.S. auto oversized to the terminal line of life and death, maybe in two months afterwards, the American motor vehicle development will have a noteworthy change. Since distribute to the worldwide fiscal squall at the time, the world depiction of drive vehicles has now commenced on the loose; With advancing extent down of the critical purpose, the North American market modifications subversive clear advancing movement, which will be the pattern of the worldwide auto development and what the pattern of Products affected? For the development of Chinese automobile development which Enlightenment? In this interview with the National Information Center for knowledge supply development, Xu Changming, chief director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute and a examiner Zhang Xin.
There is still hope that the United States Automobile
Some commentators trust that the Government of the United States intervention in general so serious, or will fully completed descend GM. In this view, Zhang Xin consider, if GM bankruptcy, in item is not basically due to incapacity to carry on to run while the bankruptcy, but the Government, trade unions, organisation, staff between the effects of a succession of games. But practically, a primary general-purpose or, in actual in the new vitality and hydrogen fuel technical knowledge has superiority, the prevailing need to start a new vitality, electrical motor vehicles in transition.
Even though the area of electric driven vehicles at GM to start previous, and the formation of a more complicated mechanical scheme, but because before the financial urgent position of the customary American vehicle sales have been steady, there will be no hurry to the advancement of universal electric driven vehicles. Zhang Xin believe should grab this opening now.
Development through common experiences, Xu Chang-ming also believes that the United States should step up for energy prices, economic models of development, the future oil prices will continue to improve, the United States "tall wide" dead end mode of development of the models.
The worldwide automobile development or change the pattern of
Xu Changming consider, in spite of of if or not GM will change, the pattern of the worldwide automotive development, many modifications will surely have to happen. Since any greatest monetary critical purpose will have noteworthy ramifications, and the United States and Japan will break through down on large enterprises.
The North American market has shrunk considerably, the large-scale accept the brunt of the battle against the United States are localized vehicle prices. At the identical time, because North America is Japan's most significant aim the globalization market, Japanese vehicle charges are furthermore hard hit.
Prior to this, to Honda, Toyota for the day on behalf of the Department of models are considered in the economic crisis in a relatively advantageous position, but the present situation, because the total North American market drop too much, resulting in the overall impact can not own a business . Statistics show that sales have been from the United States market in 2007 fell to 17 million of the 13 million last year, probably only this year reached 9,000,000.
In compare, Xu Changming believe vehicle businesses in Europe influenced by the somewhat little mass of globalization for example goal markets, mainly in the development of appearing markets, appearing markets, the lesser the influence of economic crisis; and Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other high-end emblem in the international somewhat balanced distribution.
Zhang accepts as factual that the development of the automotive commerce from the international position, Sino-Japanese financial urgent position at the Department of the development promise of vehicles are still the strongest. Since, as comprised by Toyota, Japanese vehicle charges in the enterprise beliefs, administration, merchandise minutia on the deal to be better than the U.S. and European companies. If the U.S. finances out of the base of this year, it will be likely Japanese vehicles are the large-scale victors, but there is no earnings if the last "who furthermore can not carry."
Zhang believes that the economic crisis, only to maintain the survival of the funds. If sales in emerging markets but it does not bring good returns, or no meaning. For instance, Toyota, Honda and other Japanese car prices in emerging markets also have very good sales, but its profitability and strong high-end products, mainly in the North American market. When the 31 percent decline in the U.S. market, Toyota on the loss of that in emerging markets only, "go traffic" and not effective, the same will not work.
Behind the prosperity of the Chinese automobile market is concerned
Same even though the financial crisis affected the Chinese automobile market, but because of policy changes adjusted to have a great opportunity for the domestic market. Maintenance fee abolition of falling oil prices, car purchase tax by half, "car to the countryside policies" have contributed greatly to the small displacement and low-cost model development.
According to Xu Changming analysis, 80 percent belong to their own brand of such models, it changes from a policy perspective, the own brand is beneficial. Xu Chang-ming judge, the next two years are the development of own brands the historical opportunity of the second period. The first opportunity in history are from 2002 to 2007, the total automobile market at an average annual rate of more than 35% growth in own brands to exciting opportunities; this policy are the opportunities at the market as a whole the situation is not good Next, there is obviously conducive to the development of independent brands.
XU Chang said, from the first half of this year, contrasted the position gaze better, because this around of market recovery, do not depend on one well-developed, second-class localities, but mostly by the somewhat in turn around localities are market driven. Start-up of these markets, somewhat longer time span of time will extend, because these finances less influenced and is in a time span of fast development, this market will in the beside future to sustain good grade of development.
However, Xu Chang-ming incisive out that the guideline in addition commanded to chances for our nation vehicle will lessen the effectiveness of enterprises, tiny displacement the quick expansion of low-priced types, but the complete heading down movement in profits.
Zhang trusts that the prevailing so-called "good", only the "quantity" a manifestation of, but if yield descent, and there is no large allotment of farther significance. Such an result is in all likelihood to source the Government to stimulate the overdraft, the future of sustainable development is a horrid solution.
Zhang said that China's auto market is historical opportunity for the survival of the fittest, if missed, then the Chinese will forever be with the car standing in the world behind the giants. 2008, China's largest enterprises, Shanghai Automotive car (the production of 1.75 million last year) vehicles can not enter the world top ten enterprises, tenth 1,880,000 are production, have tens of thousands of units of the gap 10.
Zhang trusts that China's auto market is still in the "Government of the warlords under the security of scrimmage." Only by letting enterprises to optimize the superiority, faults enterprises be abolished fully completed, the Chinese can become a truly tough car. - 18418
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